Willow Springs, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

436
FXUS66 KHNX 261120
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
320 AM PST Thu Dec 26 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A disturbance moving in Today and Friday will bring more
chances of precipitation to the area. Another disturbance is
expected to bring chances of precipitation to the area on
Sunday.

2. Dense Fog is possible across the San Joaquin Valley on
Saturday morning.

3. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail for
most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High clouds ahead of the next disturbance is helping hinder fog
development this morning as visibility values across the San
Joaquin Valley remain above 1 mile. The current probability of
visibility falling below 1 mile is only 30% at best. Therefore,
will focus more on the approaching winter weather expected later
tonight through early Friday. While weaker than the previous
storm, widespread brief heavy precipitation and breezy winds
over the mountain ridges are expected during storm passage. Upon
passage, a ridge pattern will exist over the region with
another weak storm moving through the area on Sunday.

Ensemble mean upper air analysis maintains its solution toward
the development of a disturbance over the West Coast today and
moving into Central California this evening. While current
timing has the precipitation entering Central California as
early as this afternoon, mean onset of precipitation is closer
to early this evening, with the heavier precipitation rates
expected tonight. The storm will favor the northern portions of
the district as Probability of Measurable Precipitation near a
tenth of an inch (0.10) in six hours ranges from 30% near Madera
to around 50% at Merced. Fresno-south has a range of just under
20% to near zero (2%) over Kern County. Similarly, the best
chance of 3 or more inches of snow of near 80% to 90% exist
around Yosemite with lesser values southward during the storm.
Furthermore, the storm is not expected to be as cold with snow
levels staying at 6,000 feet or above.

The storm exits the region Friday as fog has the potential of
returning Saturday morning. Long range Ensemble analysis than
shows another disturbance entering the region on Sunday. Based
on trajectory of the disturbances path, heavier precipitation
rates are currently not likely (less than 20%) across the San
Joaquin Valley Sunday/Monday. By the same note, heavier snowfall
during the event has less than a 20% chance of occurring.
However, the pattern does become progressive as storms start
rolling over the region for continued unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR with local IFR in low
clouds, mist and haze through 12Z. From 12Z Thu to 18Z Thu, a
20% to 30% chance of areas of IFR possible in low clouds and
mist with very localized LIFR in fog. However, there is less
than 20% chance for LIFR conditions at all area airports. After
18Z Thu, areas of MVFR return with isolated IFR in low clouds,
mist and haze.

In the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, areas of MVFR and
local mountain obscuring IFR in upslope clouds and
precipitation after 18Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

Over the West Side Hills and in the Tehachapi Mountains and
Kern County Deserts, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/25/2024 13:34
EXPIRES: 12/26/2024 23:59
On Thursday December 26 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon PST
Friday for CAZ323-326.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford